Demographic vitality in Italian municipalities: measurement and features of the most dynamic areas

Abstract

The population living in Italy has fallen by 1.4 million over the last 10 years. According to the most likely scenario of recent demographic forecasts, the decline will continue in the near future leading to a further decrease of 1.1 million people by 2030. At the same time, the population is ageing: over the last 20 years, the aging index has risen from 136 to 200; the index will exceed 250 in 2030. This trend, however, is not homogeneous in all the territories. The main aim of this work is to identify the most dynamics areas, namely those municipalities where the tendency to population decline and aging is less marked.

At this scope, a synthetic index named as Demographic Vitality Index (DVI), was introduced. DVI measures the degree of "demographic vitality" for each municipality. The index is composed by 8 indicators representing different aspects of demographic vitality: dynamics of population and changes in age structure. DVI represents therefore a new and powerful tool to implement the most appropriate anti-decline and anti-aging policies of the population.

The conceptual framework is the following: i) DVI assumes higher values in municipalities where in the meanwhile the demographic balance tends to be better and the aging process slows down; ii) the national average of DVI is imposed to be equal to 100 for the first year of observation (2019); iii) DVI ranges between 0 and 200. The source of data is the Istat dataset DEMO (demography in figures) for the years 2019-2024 (Permanent census data). Municipality borders are those at 1^st January 2025.

According DVI results, demographic vitality tends to reduce during the period of analysis. Differences between the dynamic and the structural components are significant during the years of Covid; in the most recent period they narrow down to almost converge.

The index is higher in large areas of the northeast (especially in Trentino-Alto Adige, along the Po plain, and the Via Emilia) and in coastal areas, particularly along the Lower Tyrrhenian. Vice-versa DVI is very low in Sardinia, Liguria, and in the Apennine interior areas. In the territories, there are differences depending on the distance to the main services (transport, health, education). Demographic vitality is relatively higher in the Polo areas, followed by the Intermunicipal centre and Belt areas. The worst vitality is accounted in the peripheral and ultra-peripheral municipalities.