Fragility in Italian municipal territories: a spatial analysis based on official statistics

Abstract

This study analyses social fragility in Italian municipalities, aiming to provide a structural and spatial interpretation of vulnerability at the local level. Fragility is assessed through the Municipal Fragility Index (IFC), developed by Istat, a multidimensional and non-compensatory tool that integrates twelve elementary indicators related to demographic, social, economic, environmental, and territorial dimensions. Fragility is conceptualized as a lack of territorial resilience, shaped by weak human capital, limited service infrastructure, and environmental exposure. The methodological approach combines spatial analysis using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), based on Local Moran’s I statistics, with unsupervised learning (k-median clustering), allowing for the identification of five distinct profiles for each dimension and a synthetic classification of municipalities into four types (T1–T4) based on cumulative fragility patterns. The study supports policy design aimed at reducing spatial inequalities.