The performance of local economies before and after the Covid-19: an analysis at the municipal level

Abstract

The economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on companies' performance and, consequently, on local economies. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to offer a comparative analysis of local economic performance before the pandemic (2015–2019), during its first year (2020), and during the economic recovery phase (2022). The analysis highlights the impact of the crisis on the structure and dynamics of the Italian production system at a territorial level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing and personal service sectors and uses data from the "Territorial Frame SBS" statistical register produced annually by ISTAT. Firstly, the analysis involves constructing profiles at the municipal level. For each period, it takes into account the combination of measures that capture employment trends and value added dynamics with different degrees of intensity. Secondly, the analysis focuses on business productivity, applying statistical spatial analysis methods to identify spatial correlations at the municipal level post-pandemic (2022). The method used is LISA (Local Indicator Spatial Analysis), developed by L. Anselin.