The First Victory: An Empirical Survival Study of Career Dynamics in the Italian Judiciary
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.71014/sieds.v80i3.503Abstract
This study investigates judicial career mobility in Italy, focusing on the probability of judges attaining managerial or semi-managerial roles. Using a comprehensive dataset of aspirants and winners of competitions for such roles, we combine exploratory and statistical analyses to uncover structural patterns and differences in career progression.
Demographic, professional, and institutional variables were considered, including gender, age, service length, office of origin/destination, office type and size, regional location, and the availability of positions. Additional variables, such as average evaluation time, annual staff numbers, and judicial district data, were further computed to enrich the analysis and create a unique database.
A detailed descriptive analysis reveals that judges tend to apply for roles within their geographic area and in similarly sized offices. Origin-destination matrices further illustrate these mobility preferences.
A key novelty of this work is the application of survival models to estimate the “survival to victory” curve: the probability that a judge has not yet obtained a managerial or semi-managerial role over time. The curve remains flat for the first 20 years—when such roles are legally inaccessible—then declines sharply, reaching a 50% survival rate at 45 years of service.
The analysis has been carried out also by stratifying by gender providing a novel empirical evidence on how gender and seniority interact to shape career trajectories within the Italian judiciary.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Maria Filomeno, Irene Rocchetti, Antonello Maruotti
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