Exploring asylum patterns in Europe: a focus on Italy

Abstract

In recent years, asylum applications have become a central issue in the European migration context, with varying dynamics across countries. In 2024, Italy ranks third in Europe for number of first-time asylum applicants. Excluding temporary protection requests granted due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, asylum applications in 2023 and 2024 have returned to the peak levels recorded during the Mediterranean crisis in 2016. This study aims to enhance understanding of the phenomenon through a multi-level approach. At the European level, we implement a descriptive analysis of asylum applications using Eurostat data. The goal is to analyse the distribution of socio-demographic indicators, such as the share of women or young people among applicants, within the European countries. Through multivariate analysis, we look for common patterns in asylum applications and groups of countries with similar profiles. The focus then shifts to Italy, where we investigate the evolution of asylum-seeker inflows, with particular attention to the cohort that entered in 2016, following the Mediterranean crisis. We trace these individuals up to 2024, to assess their presence and the reason for the residence permits they hold. A multinomial regression model is used to analyse the factors associated with permit transitions. The analysis seeks to highlight patterns and potential determinants that shape the asylum experience in Italy, contributing to a broader understanding of long-term migration dynamics and supporting evidence-based policy.