Decoding Italy's commercial desertification: challenges, causes, and sustainable solutions

Abstract

Commercial desertification—defined as the progressive decline of retail outlets—has emerged as a critical issue affecting urban and peripheral areas across Italy, with implications for local economies, social cohesion, and territorial equity. Between 2014 and 2022, while the total number of local units nationwide increased by 8.5%, the retail trade sector in non-specialised stores (NACE 47.1) experienced a marked contraction of 12.2%, reaching 18.1% in Southern regions. Paradoxically, employment in the sector rose by 5.6%, suggesting a structural shift in the composition and scale of retail activity.

This study investigates changes in the number of retail units at the municipal level across Italy by comparing percentage variations between 2014 and 2022, using data obtained from the Statistical Register of Local Units (ASIA-UL)– that annually compiles structural data on business establishments operating in Italy, integrating administrative sources and statistical surveys to describe territorial distribution, economic activity, and local employment - and data from ‘A misura di comune’ - an output of Istat’s experimental statistics; this system disseminates municipal-level indicators across various thematic areas, drawing upon both official and non-official statistical sources -  for the socio-demographic and economic indicators at the municipal level.

The results reveal significant spatial disparities, with smaller and inland municipalities exhibiting greater vulnerability to retail closures. Key predictors include demographic trends, income levels, accessibility, and sectoral performance. The findings underscore the need for place-based, inclusive policies to counteract commercial desertification and support the sustainable revitalisation of local commerce in the context of ongoing socio-economic transitions.